A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
